?? When does retail shopping return to *normal* ??



We now have extensions of COVID-19 lockdown in NSW with new restrictions.

As a Victorian who has gone through a few lockdowns, I can assure you that these snap suspensions are wearing everyone down. It starts its stops, etc. It has a name now *lockdown fatigue*. We all feel it.

Now as a person in retail, I can assure you that click and collect are excellent. You should have it. An online shopping website is also great. Again you should have it. As our software is has a unified commerce retail platform, there is no reason why you do not have both now. No one else in our market space can make such a claim.

The problem here is that most retail needs people contact.

So the big question is, when will these COVID lockdowns end.

A reasonable guesstimate based on this terrific tracking site for Australia is COVID LIVE here

So far, we have done 8,255,473 vaccinations.

Our current rate of vaccinations is about 800,000 a week.

On world figures, governments are looking to get about 2/3 of the population vaccinated. This seems to be their herd immunity figure. We have about 25.36 million people.

So we need to do 25.36 million people x (2 vaccinations) x 2/3 = 34 million vaccinations.

That is about (34 - 8,255,473) = 25.5 million left to do

So we need in weeks (25.5 million / 800,000) = 31 weeks or Jan 2022

This is not good enough for retail as most retailers want at least Nov 2021 so we can have tourists! 

To do that we need 1.5 million vaccinations a week, can we do it that high? I doubt it so I would not count on a great Christmas tourist season this year.

Some points here to consider:

- Covid variants are a real wild card. 

- A significant limiting factor now in vaccinations is the Pfizer vaccine. Its availability should increase, so maybe the vaccination rate will go up. I hope so because no one wants to go through another six months of this.

- The first shot gives about 70% immunity so that we may open up the country earlier. 

- We do not know yet how long the COVID-19 vaccine protection lasts. Clinical trials are currently underway. If so, this calculation may be way off as we all may need a booster shot too.

- The kids need to be done, but these can wait till we get the adult population done.

What is clear is that the vaccinations will continue for a long time.

Let me know your thoughts.

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