ABC circulation figures newspaper for April to June 2011


Newspapers went down April to June 2011 quarter compared to last year same time by 4.2%. Unlike the last quarter, there was no difference between weekdays, Saturday or Sunday. Fairfax did only slightly better than News Corp. The only point that was noticeable was that Queensland went down much more than everywhere else.

Since these figures are not being shown in benchmarking in newsagencies, most of these loses must have been in places that have direct supply like supermarkets.

I decided to do modelling to see what equation, I could fit to these figures and came up with this.

Formula: f(Mar-11,Dec-10,Sep-10,Jun-10) = 4480.56*sin(7.48779*Mar-11 - 0.129757) + 1.00354*powc(Mar-11*Jun-10, 0.499298) + 294.342/sin(-0.831681*Mar-11) - 2475.95*sin(545.416*Mar-11) - 1646.58

Based on this we can expect overall a 2.7% decline next quarter from this quarter.